Analyst Klintsevich explained why Russia is less likely to use Caliber. Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation/TASS
Will visits to kyiv by European and American ministers be able to revive the flow of aid to Ukraine? How are the West’s plans for Ukraine changing? Does Russia now need to supply its weapons abroad?
We talked about this on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda with the director of the Center for the Study of Military-Political Conflicts, Andrei Klintsevich.
WHY THE BOSSES GO TO Kyiv
– Western ministers visit kyiv more frequently. Here is Boris Pistorius, the head of the German Ministry of Defense, who promised Ukraine 2,380 artillery shells of the 155 mm NATO caliber. Are the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the verge of a shell famine?
– We perceive the 155 mm caliber in this way: all these projectiles are the same, they fit together from any weapon. And German shells will fit into American or French artillery systems. But they have 14 subtypes of these shells, and they are all different! The head of the NATO military committee, Rob Bauer, was forced to appeal to governments: we have to get out of this situation and start doing all this together!
– This is not the only problem.
– The European Union’s military factories focused on expensive, high-tech products: tanks, cars, airplanes. The projectiles came a second time. No one expected to use them in such quantities. And scaling up production to produce them is expensive and difficult. We need to invest in foundries, but no one can guarantee those sales next year, when a million bushings will be needed. And the workshops will begin to become inactive.
Most countries in the world understand that the general atmosphere is becoming more complex.
Photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS
WHO DOES THE MIC WORK FOR?
– Will Ukraine cease to be a priority and the European military-industrial complex will shift towards other objectives?
– Most countries in the world understand that the general environment is becoming more complicated. Everyone is starting to buy these shells for their warehouses. European factories began shipping more expensive shells to other countries. And in kyiv there is a fixed price, from the European Union. Furthermore, world prices already increased in October. The main goal of the meeting in Ramstein, Germany, which took place on November 22, was to force the military-industrial complex of European countries to work according to previously planned programs.
– But few people want to do this?
– Nobody wants. Ukraine now mainly uses American-made cluster projectiles produced in the 1980s. They were counting on the Cold War in Europe. It was supposed to become a hot stage. When the Russians were supposed to advance in huge waves. And at that time we were producing cluster munitions. We are focusing more on airloads: these are a cluster of single-use bombs, which we are now starting to use effectively on the front line. This is a problem for Ukraine.
– Czech President Petr Pavel said: “The armies of the European Union are preparing for a high-intensity conflict”…
– They are preparing for an unconventional war with conventional armed forces. And we must understand: it is a task that starts from the States to transform the European political class, the European infrastructures for the free movement of American troops.
– What will it be?
– Increase the mobility of the armed forces. They are beginning to use American and European money to widen tunnels and reinforce bridges so that American heavy equipment from Germany can be quickly transferred east: to Romania, Poland, and the Baltics. The second story is that the Americans are beginning to move their troops to Eastern Europe and strengthen their bases there. The Kosciuszko field is a huge logistics center; in Poland a base is being created at the division level. The Germans are transferring some units to the Baltics.
WHO IS BEHIND THE WALL
– Is this the fulfillment of a new plan?
– This is a plan to divide Europe with a big wall. It will extend from the north from Norway, Finland, through the Baltic countries and Poland, to the south, to Romania and Bulgaria. There is Hungary, which still resists these processes. But they create a complex mechanism that should block logistics. We are already seeing it in the actions of the Finns.
– Are the Poles ahead of everyone?
“They are doing a huge mobilization of resources. We ordered several thousand armored vehicles from Korea for such quantities that Korean foreign trade banks had to increase their limits. Poles borrow from future generations.
– Bulgaria suddenly handed over one hundred armored personnel carriers to Ukraine for free.
– We are talking about old BTR-60. There are two low-power gasoline engines.
– But will this also create problems for us?
– Now the emphasis is on other technologies. These are drones. They hold the record for the number of damaged equipment and personnel. Mines are in second place, followed by artillery. The old armored personnel carriers are a gesture of desperation for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost a lot of equipment and need rotation. And the Bulgarians, when they send weapons, invoice the European Union. And either they snatch some preferences, or they will receive dismantled American equipment in exchange for these armored personnel carriers. Nobody just helps Ukraine.
Photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS
ROCKETS – WINGS
– What does Ukraine need to increase?
– The capabilities of artillery, electronic warfare, the attempt to take control of the sky, and this includes air defense and airborne weapons. We are talking about hundreds of aircraft, and 10 to 20, even 90 aircraft will not change anything. Given our ability to influence the entire depth of the territory of Ukraine, when we detect new aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the airfield, they will attack there with cruise missiles.
– Are our cruise missiles your nightmare?
– Lately we have been attacking only with small drones “Geranium” and saving “Caliber”. We can produce more than a hundred of them per month. This means that sometimes several thousand can fall on them.
WHO IS FOR PEACE
– At the G20, Vladimir Putin said that Russia has never refused to negotiate peace?
– The option that NATO will now offer us is to stop, come on, Russians, we will “freeze” you again, and during this time we will make Ukraine even stronger and then we will try to take revenge; From a security point of view, this is unacceptable to us.
– Is everything more difficult for Americans?
– They are trying to maneuver, to see what happens in the Middle East. This summer a great article came out from the RAND Corporation. It was considered the image of the future after the end of the conflict. Main theses: the image of the future that Ukraine sees does not always coincide with the American one. A political solution to the conflict is in the interest of the States. If the Europeans get involved and there is a risk of using nuclear weapons, this is unacceptable to the Americans. They need to make money. This means that we must influence Zelensky. For Zelensky, the situation is politically very unstable.
– Moscow puts a condition on the West: hand over Ukraine to us?
– Now we say that we are ready for negotiations, let’s discuss. But we will continue moving forward. In addition, there are many points of contact, both on the humanitarian side and in exchanges and energy. But freezing the conflict and getting a terrorist state that carries out drone strikes and terrorist attacks on our territory is a problem postponed for future generations. It is necessary to resolve it now.
WHERE IS THE AIR DEFENSE GOING?
– Why do we send 8 S-300 installations to Tajikistan? Do we ourselves need air defense systems?
– We are building a unified air defense system and strengthening it. Suppose Iran could be the United States’ next target. There, several thousand missiles can attack the country at once, the air defense system is overloaded, objects are destroyed, and then it can be solved with impunity.
– What does Russia have to do with this?
– She is presented with a similar scenario. And moving beyond the borders of Russia to various regions of the allied countries of our system, with powerful radars, with the ability to detect and destroy them, is an important moment for us. This is the control of the Central Asian region, the movement.
– By protecting Tajikistan, are we protecting ourselves?
– Yes, its armed forces at base 201, its most vulnerable point: Central Asia. We control the military movement in this region. It’s very important.
– Why sell weapons to someone in times of war?
– Our experts say that you cannot miss markets, then it will be difficult to get there. These are billions of dollars, serious losses. Of course, we are reducing contracts. We just do especially delicate things and continue to interact. Deliveries are made of those systems and weapons for which our frontline deficit has been resolved. They are trying to find a middle ground.
THE NAIS IS OFFICIAL EDITOR ON NAIS NEWS