A growing “green line” against Europe’s environmental agenda has yet to derail its decarbonisation plans, but the looming election could jeopardize future climate and environmental measures.
The European Union has refined its role as a leader on climate change, enshrining carbon reduction targets in law and proposing policies to reduce emissions this decade.
So far, the impact of the green push is limited, say policymakers and analysts, because most of Europe’s major carbon dioxide reduction policies are enshrined in law.
But as policymakers seek to translate net-zero targets into measures that go beyond power generation to areas such as buildings and transport, they face increasing resistance as citizens suffer from the cost of living crisis.
Concern over a law to phase out oil and gas heating has brought Germany’s ruling coalition close to breaking point, while in the Netherlands anger over plans to curb nitrogen pollution led to a surprise referendum victory for a new party. of farmers protest.
Analysts say politicians are increasingly tapping into concerns about calculating green policies ahead of regional, national and EU elections in the next year and a half.
“It is certainly a different circumstance from 2019, when we started with maximum support and political will to work from… the entire periphery,” European Commissioner for the Environment Virginius Sinkevicius told Reuters.
Politicians must take into account opinion polls that show that the vast majority of citizens are concerned about climate change and strong business interests behind the green transition.
“We have this stable majority that supports the green deal,” he said, referring to the European Parliament’s level of support for the EU’s overarching green agenda.
“But then we get to more difficult files (the EU legal proposals), which I think are heavily influenced by the political debate inevitably,” added Sinkivicius.
As a result, officials say green laws are becoming more difficult to pass as some EU governments resist new car emissions limits and seek to weaken pollution controls for livestock farms. A proposal to improve energy efficiency in buildings faces obstacles from cost-conscious countries.
The Polish government, which faces an election in October, is suing Brussels over its climate policies.
“Does the EU want authoritative decisions about what kind of vehicles Poles will drive?” asked Climate and Environment Minister Anna Mosqua last month.
Nature conservation measures face more opposition than decarbonization measures due to pressure from a strong agricultural sector and the lack of strong commercial incentives to change, said Natalie Tucci, director of Italy’s Istituto Affari Internazionali.
Despite the failure of a recent campaign by the centre-right European People’s Party, the largest group in the European Parliament, to overturn a proposed law to restore damaged environments, the proposal looks set to falter.
“The European Parliament elections next year will be very decisive if we look ahead, because the centre-right group is turning more towards green politics,” said Mats Engstrom of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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