According to the Deputy Minister of Energy, Pavel Snikkars, the change in costs with the possible introduction of differentiated tariffs will only affect citizens who consume electricity well above the regional average. That is, use it for mining and commercial purposes.
Differentiated tariffs are already applied in 7 regions of our country. The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) proposes to stimulate its spread to all regions. The aim of the initiative is to reduce cross-subsidies in the electricity market, which increase every year, as well as combat “grey mining”, which is often disguised as “civil consumption”.
Differentiated tariffs will protect conscious electricity consumers who use it only for their domestic needs.
As the Ministry of Economic Development informed RG, when deciding on differentiated tariffs, regions will have to evaluate the volume of cross-subsidies. That is, the dynamics of tariffs will depend on the situation in a particular region.
The regions already have the right to set tariffs (three types, with different consumption volumes) for the population, but so far the mechanism has not been used. Regional authorities prefer to keep prices low for the population and increase the burden on companies. This is a cross-subsidy. In 2023, according to the HSE, the volume of business payments reached a record 293.9 billion rubles.
The FAS proposes to prohibit regions from increasing electricity prices for companies from 2024 without introducing differentiated tariffs for the population. Without a doubt, this innovation will have a positive effect on companies. But how important it will be to people’s pockets is an open question. The FAS notes that these tariffs will protect conscious consumers who use energy only for domestic needs. Before setting electricity consumption ranges, regional authorities must calculate its consumption by the population. The FAS will closely monitor this and cancel the decisions of regional bodies if it finds violations. The service emphasizes that people should be able to meet all their electricity needs without exceeding the base rate.
But a lot depends on how high the level of electricity consumption of the population is under the basic tariff, says Sergei Kondratyev, head of the sector of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance.
In most regions where a division has already been made between consumption within and above the social norm, the basic tariff and the tariff above the social norm differ by 1.4 to 1.5 times. Regional regulators will set the social norm, based both on current cross-subsidy volumes and on geographical conditions (in the northern regions, electricity consumption is on average higher) and demand characteristics (for example, a high proportion of households use electricity to cook and heat their homes), explains Kondratiev.
If consumption above the social norm accounts for 15-20% of the total electricity supply to the population, then with an increase in basic tariffs from July 1 of 6.3% (in 2024), payments of the population on average could increase by 12%. -13%. But it should be noted that a price increase of more than 6.3% will affect a small category of citizens; The vast majority of consumers consume less electricity than established by the social norm.
I think that at least in 2024 the regions will take a fairly conservative approach to the introduction of social standards and their overall effect on revenues will not exceed 1-2%. (and not between 5 and 7% as indicated in the previous calculation), says Kondratiev.
Here there is one more nuance related to the rules for setting electricity tariffs for the population, which have been in force since 1948, notes Sergei Rozhenko, director of the Kept electricity analysis group.
Gray “miners”, for example, consume excess electricity, and not lovers of bright lighting. Photo: Pornpak Khunatorn / istock
The fact is that more than three quarters of the entire “crossroads” are made up of the so-called super-preferential categories of the population, which receive an additional 30 percent discount on the tariff. These are residents of apartment buildings without gas and residents of rural settlements. Ironically, all modern residential complexes with more than 10 floors and the most prosperous residents of suburban agglomerations automatically receive these benefits that are excessive for them. Taking into account the volume of housing commissioning, the “crossroads” is increasing by 5-10 billion rubles. annually in this organic way.
That is, in fact, it turns out that residents of old apartment buildings (five-, nine- and twelve-story buildings) with gas stoves are already paying more for electricity. And rates based on the volume of electricity consumption may hit their wallets harder, although the intersection is growing through no fault of their own.
The regions will set the basic level of electricity consumption of the population
According to Rozhenko, the introduction of mechanisms for differentiating household tariffs depending on the volume of consumption is a step by the regulator in the right direction, but to seriously change the situation, it is necessary to provide regions with even broader options for creating a rates menu. with the possibility of subregional, seasonal grading and by type of housing. Now tariffs for households on average across the country are 35% to 50% lower than tariffs for businesses.
As Kondratiev points out, in theory government measures should reduce cross-subsidies, but much depends on the level at which the social consumption norm will be set. For example, in the Oryol region for a household consisting of 1 person, the social norm is 190 kWh/month, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory – 110 kWh/month, in the Rostov region – 96 kWh/month.
As a result, for example, in the Rostov region, 29% of all electricity consumed by the population is sold at a tariff that exceeds the basic level, explains the expert. If between 90% and 95% of households are subject to the limit, the effect is most likely close to zero, since payments will hardly increase and energy sales companies will have to increase administration costs. these rates.
According to the expert, in 2024 the reduction in cross-subsidies thanks to the use of this measure will amount to no more than 7-10 billion rubles.
THE NAIS IS OFFICIAL EDITOR ON NAIS NEWS