Christmas lottery: this is the probability that you will win the jackpot

The extraordinary draw of the Christmas Lottery is here and what is known as the day of hope will give way to the day of health as the day progresses, recording the probability that you will win El Gordo. This December 22, millions of players will remember the famous phrase that the important thing is to be well when they see that the numbers they have on their tickets have little or nothing to do with the number that won El Gordo. Only a lucky few will be the protagonists of those photos uncorking bottles of champagne at the doors of administrations throughout Spain. Even so, each Spaniard plays an average of 71.67 euros in the Christmas Lottery.

We all know how difficult it is to win the Christmas Lottery. Just as we know that the probability of us being the winners of any other State Lottery and Betting draw is minimal, but… what if it happens? That dream is what makes each year record breaking ticket purchases in search of fulfilling a dream, plugging holes, lowering the mortgage, taking the dream trip and, why not, becoming a millionaire.

What is the probability that you will win El Gordo?

There is little consolation for the fact that as the children of San Ildefonso advance singing numbers and prizes, the prize box is still at zero, but it is time to think coldly and read again the mathematics teacher who remembers that only one in every 100,000 I would get it.

This jar of cold water was revealed last year in a study by Daniel Pérez Palau, professor of the degree in Computational Mathematics at the International University of La Rioja (UNIR). But since the one who does not console himself is because he does not want to, there will be 15% of those who play who will at least recover what they invested and of those 5% will recover more money than they invested. In his opinion, the one that always wins with the lottery is the State, because it distributes 70% of the investment in prizes and the remaining 30% stays in the public coffers.

He also detailed to Europa Press that to have a 1% chance of winning the first prize, it is necessary to get 1,000 different numbers. With 10,000 different number tenths – which represents an expense of 200,000 euros in the lottery – one obtains a 10% chance.