CaixaBank, Banco Santander and BBVA, the favorites in banking after the Ibex record

Be cautious and analyze each value individually. Ibex 35 as protagonists of its heavyweights, among which some of the selective entities such as BBVA or Sabadell stand out. With a rebound that is around 54% in both cases, these two firms lead the advances and are, together with Santander, which also rose more than 35%, three of the listed companies that appreciate the most in the annual calculation.

This jump accentuates the trend that has been occurring within the sector with the greatest weighting within the Ibex, in which CaixaBank (+14.3%), Bankinter (+2.8%) and Unicaja Banco (+0.48%) They have been left somewhat further behind. However, in the middle of this x-ray, in which the rise of the Ibex Bancos (+35%) easily beats that of the entire selective so far this year (+22.2%), analysts continue to deposit large expectations in these values. The purchase recommendations in all six cases are greater than 50%, with CaixaBank, BBVA and Banco Santander being the favorites.

The classification is led by the entity chaired by Ignacio Goirigolzarri, to which more than 74% of the analysts who follow the value recommend buying once the filter of the quarterly results has passed. CaixaBank shows muscle on the stock market from 4.2 euros per share and is very close to reaching 4.3 euros, which would reach its highest level in almost six years. Despite this, its book value still resists, unlike BBVA, which has already surpassed them. The firm based in sailing is another of those that are among the most attractive in the eyes of experts with 68.8% of advice to include it in the portfolio and none for sale, according to the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus after closing this Wednesday at 8.7 euros per title.

2015% while the action is already moving at 2019 levels, up to 3.8 euros. Although in this case the percentage has remained in a similar range since the end of 2021, this has not been the case in CaixaBank and BBVA, in which the favorable bets have never been as high as now, which is a real boost from the analysts. . .

This situation can be extrapolated to Bankinter (68%), which is currently trading at historical highs (6.4 euros), as well as to Sabadell with six out of ten including it on their radar. The bank led by César González-Bueno boasts a good run on the stock market once it surpassed 1.3 euros, a level it had not touched since 2018. Unicaja Banco is a little further behind, which cuts more than 20 percentage points the purchasing councils, up to 61.1%, in the midst of the governance crisis and the remodeling of the leadership, which has been skipped with the resignation of Manuel Azuaga as CEO and president of the board of directors.

The fifth Spanish entity by volume of assets opens a new stage with the stock slightly above the euro per share, levels very similar to those recorded at the end of December 2022, when it debuted on the Ibex 35, replacing Siemens Gamesa. This leads it to be the bank with the greatest potential of the entire selective (34%). All record a double-digit twelve-month journey, except BBVA, whose ‘rally’ leads it to cut it below 9%. Within a year in which firms such as Santander and BBVA have regularly resorted to share buybacks, the question is whether these prospects they face can change as the impact of the rise in interest rates begins to flourish in the economy.

“After results that reflect the recovery of margins and with the improvement in credit quality already reflected in the price, we enter 2024 with a lot of uncertainty and more downward factors than upwards,” defends Nuria Álvarez, banking analyst at Income 4. In this sense, the expert establishes differences between Banco Santander, Banco Sabadell and Unicaja Banco, which have greater potential, compared to BBVA, Bankinter or CaixaBank, highlighting the disparate speed at which they move.

In fact, one of the points of concern for investors lies in whether the banks, considered the engine of the Ibex, have gas left to maintain the ‘acceleration’ for the coming months. The forecast regarding interest rate drops, with the market discounting that the bullish monetary cycle has come to an end in the eurozone and economic developments, can condition its stock market trajectory. The market is wondering whether it raises provisions to protect itself from a possible increase in the default rate, a key factor in the banking playing field.

Diego Morín, of IG, highlights that these companies have not begun to “mameluco key levels” until a couple of months ago, so it has not been until now that they have begun to reflect “the aggressive monetary tightening” carried out by the central banks. In these circumstances, he warns that these are cyclical values, so “turbulence in the medium and long term” cannot be ruled out. He shares a position with Diego Fernández Elices, investment director of the private bank A & G, who has warned that banking “is leaving its sweet spot behind.”