Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are rising in New York, prompting the state health commissioner on Wednesday to urge New Yorkers to get tested if they have a runny nose, headache or other symptoms.
Despite the uptick, several epidemiologists expressed doubt that there would be a major wave of cases in the coming weeks, as the mix of Omicron subvariants circulating in New York has not changed dramatically this summer.
Epidemiologists cited several factors likely contributing to rising transmission, including a few days of scorching heat that kept many people indoors, where respiratory viruses spread more easily. Immunity is also waning for the millions of New Yorkers infected during earlier Omicron waves.
“It has been a while since the last major surge when a large number of people would have been infected,” said Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health.
So far New York City has seen seven waves of Covid-19, with four occurring since the Omicron variant first appeared at the end of 2021.
Dr. Nash estimates that more than 20 percent of New Yorkers have now had Covid-19 three or more times, a group that now includes him. In a phone interview on Wednesday, he said he was just getting over his third bout. “I was relieved that it was not as rough as the other two.”
How many others have fallen ill with Covid-19 in recent weeks is difficult to estimate. New York City’s vast testing apparatus has largely closed, and many people don’t bother with at-home tests anymore. Few infections are ever logged in official case counts. In New York City, the daily average count of new cases stood at only 363, as of July 24.
But the state health commissioner, Dr. James McDonald, said that across the state, hospital admissions had increased some 22 percent over the previous week and the number of reported cases had jumped 55 percent.
“As we once again see an increase in cases of Covid-19 in the state, I urge all New Yorkers to remember Covid is a treatable disease,” Dr. McDonald said, urging people to consider seeking antivirals such as Paxlovid, if infected.
Epidemiologists expressed doubt that the latest uptick would turn into a major wave.
“There seems to be some level of stability in the balance between immunity and what the virus is doing,” said Dr. Jay Varma, an epidemiologist at Weill Cornell Medical College, who helped oversee the city’s Covid-19 response in 2020 and 2021.
“The virus does not appear to be evolving to become either more transmissible or more lethal at this point,” he said, although that could change, he added.
Even though transmission was clearly on the rise, there were indications that the number of infections was still relatively low and that few people faced severe illness.
In New York City, the number of hospitalized Covid patients stood at just over 300 on Monday. For much of July, that number had been under 200. But even 300 patients still ranks as among the lowest counts in the past three years. At the start of 2023, there were about 1,800 Covid patients in New York City hospitals.
Sharon Otterman contributed reporting.
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