We constantly write about the personnel shortage in Russia. And this topic seems to have no end, like oil and prices.
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STAFF SHORTAGE
We constantly write about the personnel shortage in Russia. And this topic seems to have no end, like oil and prices. Such attention is fully justified. The country has charted a firm course towards import substitution, production is developing, education is being restructured on a new basis and domestic tourism is growing. This is all good, but who will do the work?
Experts from Yakov and Partners tried to answer this question by studying 38 million job offers posted by Russian employers between 2018 and July 2023. It turned out that there were 1.8 times more offers. (The study is available to the editors – Author).
The company is confident that a labor shortage has already occurred. For example, in August a record was set for the number of vacancies published: 1.2 million. Moreover, their number grew at a high rate in all regions, and especially rapidly compared to the beginning of 2018, in Central (108%), Ural (96%) and Far Eastern federal districts (94%). At the same time, a record unemployment rate was recorded last October: 2.9%.
According to experts, in 2030 Russia will lack 1.1 to 2.2 million semi-skilled specialists and 0.7 to 1.4 million highly qualified specialists. The shortage will have the greatest impact on manufacturing, logistics and trade (see “Note”).
As the number of vacancies increases, the average salary offered also increases (see “Just the numbers”). This is the amount when exactly half of the workers receive more and the other half less. It has doubled in size.
The study’s authors suggest that labor shortages will have the greatest impact on manufacturing, transportation and trade. But in the agricultural sector the situation will not be so critical. Furthermore, there may be a surplus of labor there if timely measures are taken to digitize and increase labor productivity.
At the same time, the usual approaches (increasing salaries and poaching personnel), according to experts, will not completely solve the problem.
ENGINEERS, DOCTORS AND SCIENTISTS WILL BE NEEDED
Vice-Rector of the Financial University of the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Safonov treats such forecasts with skepticism because, as a rule, they are not calculated on the basis of scientific models, but are general assumptions dictated by modern trends.
“The shortage of personnel depends on whether within 6 years there will be a need for a certain profession in the volume in which the authors of the study declare it,” says Alexander Safonov. – It is difficult to answer these questions, because we do not know how the technology and demand for this or that product will develop. Therefore, it is useless to try to make serious assessments. We can only talk about the probability that the demand for certain types of professions will increase.
According to the expert, the development of society is moving along the path of automation and mechanization of all processes, including solving the problem of personnel shortage. And in this context, engineering specialists who invent robotic systems will be in greater demand.
“Engineering and related software development will be in high demand around the world for a long time,” says Alexander Safonov. – And the increase in salaries will be in accordance with the inflation rate, and not 2 or 3 times, because… associated with a large number of factors in the economy. This, by the way, depends on how the educational system reacts. Let us remember the situation in the 90s. The growth of salaries in the financial sector was impressive due to the complete shortage of personnel. But as soon as universities began to train a sufficient number of specialists, growth stopped. Now, on the contrary, there is a reduction in demand for banking and insurance workers.
According to Safonov, the healthcare sector is where salaries will surely increase. The world population is aging. Consequently, there will be more people with multimorbid diseases (a combination of two or more chronic diseases in one patient). The demand for gerontologists, family doctors, nurses and nursing care specialists will increase. Along with demand, wages will also increase.
Science is another promising area, but it depends directly on the demand of the State. All over the world, science is financed from the state budget. Now in Russia both the state and companies are interested in the development of science, so there is a possibility that the salaries of scientists will increase.
How to solve the problem of staff shortage?
“First of all, there is the surest way – to increase labor productivity through the introduction of new technologies – automation and mechanization,” answers Alexander Safonov. – Secondly, it is necessary to develop recycling programs for workers who want to change professions. There is a third way: investing in the education of future employees of the school family. But it has not yet become a national idea in our country. Only some companies that have strong links with local authorities are dedicated to this type of activity. Meanwhile, we have 36 million people (out of 72 million workers) employed in small businesses and they do not invest in future generations because they do not have the strength or the means to do so.
SPECIFICALLY
Increase in average salary in Moscow and federal districts (DF) compared to the first half of 2018
Moscow +51%
Far Eastern Federal District +90%
Ural Federal District +100%
Northwestern Federal District + 85%
Siberian Federal District +104%
Central Federal District +100%
Volga Federal District +114%
Southern Federal District +100%
North Caucasus Federal District +111%
(According to Yakov and partners).
ON A NOTE
Estimated labor shortage by 2030:
Manufacturing industries: 800 thousand-1.1 million people.
Trade – 300 – 500 thousand people.
Transportation and storage: 300 – 500 thousand people.
Construction – 230 – 350 thousand people.
Hotels and catering – 230 – 340 thousand people.
IT and communications: 150 – 250 thousand people.
…surplus labor by 2030:
Agriculture, forestry – up to 200 thousand people.
(According to Yakov and partners).
THE NAIS IS OFFICIAL EDITOR ON NAIS NEWS