The ‘boom’ for Treasury Bills will continue despite the lower profitability

This year that is coming to an end has been the year of the rebirth of Public Treasury Bills. Individual investors have found in short-term State debt the profitability that deposits did not offer despite the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates to 4.5%. But this ‘boom’ will continue next year, despite the fact that the market is already discounting a downward shift in the price of money due to the moderation of inflation.

Thus, Treasury Bills will continue to be an attractive product for the most conservative investor, explain the experts consulted by La Información since they continue to offer a higher remuneration than the fixed-term deposits of Spanish banks (the average rate is 2 .3% while one-year bills reached 3.2% in the last auction). This is the opinion of David Ardura, investment director of Finacess Value, since he considers that the “most conservative saver will continue to bet on the products that have done best this year” especially when there is no alternative.

Ignacio Zarza, head of institutional sales at Auriga Global Investors, holds the same opinion. “With remunerations that are still attractive, together with the lack of competitive alternatives to conservative short-term savings, it invites us to think that Letters will continue to be the star asset for the conservative short-term investor.” For his part, Pedro Ruiz, personal finance expert at Kelisto, believes that the volumes will be similar to this year.

The advantage of Treasury Bills, which will allow you to maintain your appetite for them, is that there is no need to actively search for a bank to achieve the best remuneration, but it is enough to open an account at the account service. . direct from the Bank of Spain. Sergio Ávila, IG analyst, highlights that “in an environment where inflation is deflating, 2024 can still be interesting for Treasury bills.” Thus, this appetite can be seen in the agency’s appointment service to buy Treasury Bills. In large provinces, like Madrid, there are no days available until the first week of February. In Barcelona, ​​like Bilbao, such is the demand that everything is covered until March.

However, something must be taken into account, that “large banks have become more willing to fight for their clients’ liabilities. In general terms, this can be seen with the proliferation of deposits, such as those of Caixabank or BBVA. Letras Tesoro,” warns Ruiz.

However, if the organization led by Christine Lagarde really begins to cut interest rates, the investor’s strategy would have to change. That is, experts recommend increasing the durations, betting on longer terms, since these expectations of cuts will cause the profitability offered to go down. Víctor Alvargonzález, strategy director at Nextep Finance, believes that a three-year bond would be a better option.

Precisely this decrease in profitability has already been confirmed in the auctions held during the month of November. Thus, in six- and twelve-month State paper they have registered falls in their remunerations, which is more evident in twelve-month Bills due to these expectations, whose marginal interest has gone from 3.6% to 3.2%. Ardura believes that remunerations at the end of next year if the ECB’s rate curve is met would be around 2.5%.

Rosa the 23,000 million euros

Individuals have become the first holders of State debt. At the end of October of this year it had almost 23,000 million euros. Already in August they took the “surprise” as the first investors, ahead of foreigners, who were normally the ones with the greatest appetite for this type of investment.

Precisely, since the ECB began to raise interest rates, interest in this type of investment has been reactivated. At the end of October 2022, they had 468 million euros, which means increasing their investment by 7,000% to 22,893 million euros.