IGOR GIELOW
SÃO PAULO, SP (FOLHAPRESS)
On February 19 last year, on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Volodimir Zelenski made a famous speech at the Munich Security Conference (Germany).
In it, the Ukrainian said that Moscow had “grossly violated” the territorial guarantee agreements between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, signed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union that housed these and 11 other countries until 1991.
Thus, he said, “the entire package of decisions” finalized in 1994, including Ukraine’s denuclearized status, “would be in doubt.” It was a rhetorical shot in the foot, although a realist would have to agree that if he had kept the 1,700 Soviet warheads he operated, Ukraine would be unlikely to be invaded in 2022.
With his troops ready to invade, Vladimir Putin had no doubt in denouncing the Ukrainian intention to develop nuclear weapons to attack Russia – therefore, alongside other exaggerations such as the alleged domination of Nazis over a Jewish president in the neighbor, it would only be left to the Kremlin strike preemptively.
The speech was lost as the conflict unfolded, but for some reason Zelenski decided to repeat the shot, now on the other foot, when he debuted as president of a country at war live from the pulpit of the UN General Assembly this Tuesday (19 ).
To a somewhat incredulous audience, the Ukrainian began his speech by somberly lamenting the fact that Ukraine gave up “the world’s third arsenal of nuclear weapons.” He weaved a somewhat tortuous narrative about the Cold War, saying that the world sought nuclear disarmament, “a good strategy, but it should not be the only strategy.”
The world, he said without naming names, “decided that Russia should be the sole owner of this power” left by the Soviet Union. “History showed that it was Russia that deserved nuclear disarmament in the 1990s,” she said.
If he intended to gain allies, even though the logic is defensible in the most basic “realpolitik”, Zelensky will only fuel the discourse in Russia that in the end he wants to nuclearize Ukraine and threaten its great neighbor.
In relation to the potential customers of his speech below, which went over the themes of Russian aggression, the removal of children from its territory and the issue of global food inflation resulting from the war, it was certainly not the best selling point – which included the already familiar military green clothes and the cry of “Glory to Ukraine” at the end of the speech.
The moment is delicate, in addition to the UN stage being quite empty of relevance this year: the Ukrainian counteroffensive has so far failed to achieve any strategic objective and its execution time before the local autumn rains is running out. Kiev has opted for more flashy actions, such as against Russian ships.
But the central problem of how much of its land is occupied has not changed – contrary to Western goodwill, as Polish President Andrzej Duda’s speech demanding more gratitude from Kiev showed.
Because Zelensky was clearly targeting countries like Brazil and India – seen in Kiev and Washington as adherents of a neutrality that favors Putin – when he said that the whole world was at risk from Russia, not just Ukraine and rich nations. In the Brazilian case, unlike the Indian one, the nation condemned the war, but refuses to join and denounces the Western sanctions regime against Moscow as perverse.
In India, not even that. There is criticism, but what matters is New Delhi’s 14-fold increase in imports of cheap Russian oil in 2022. The US could act by applying pressure, and anyone who heard President Joe Biden’s speech would even believe that, but in practice they received Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a pompous state visit – just as France did later.
What matters to the West is India’s economic, political and military weight, a buffer against rival China, Putin’s ally, in Asia. Brazil doesn’t have all of this. Therefore, if he actually meets with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) this Wednesday (20), it does not seem that it will be with nuclear lamentations that Zelenski will obtain any declaration favorable to his cause. Worse, given Lula’s sympathy for Putin, he is still likely to receive some reprimand.
The post Zelenski helps Putin by lamenting the loss of nuclear weapons appeared first in Jornal de Brasília.
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