ALEXA SALOMON
BRASILIA, DF (FOLHAPRESS)
The share of voters for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) who project an improvement in the economy has been falling since December last year. On the other hand, the share of pessimists among those who declare having voted for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) increases.
Voters’ mood regarding Brazil’s economic future was mapped by Datafolha. The new research, carried out on the 12th and 13th of this month, carried out 2,016 interviews in 139 municipalities across the country. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.
In the survey carried out in December, 79% of those who declared that they had voted for Lula in the second round projected that the country’s economy would improve in the following months. This portion had a small reduction in the survey carried out in March this year, which marked the analysis of the one hundred days of government. There was a slight drop in optimists, with 76%.
In September, the share of voters projected to improve fell to 66% – a drop of 10 percentage points in about six months.
There is no significant increase in the president’s group of voters who project a worsening of the economic scenario. This portion was 1% last year, rising to 5% and 7%, respectively, in March and September.
What grew at the beginning of the government was the share that estimates stability in the scenario, with no improvement or worsening, from now on. This group brought together 18% of voters in December and March, and rose to 25% in September.
Lula voters are following the general trend. There is a reduction in the number of those who project an improvement in the economy, but the drop is more modest.
The peak projection of economic improvement in the general average of respondents was recorded in the survey carried out in October, between the first and second rounds of the presidential elections. At that time, 62% projected an improvement in the economy.
From then on, this share shrank, reaching 49% in December, 46% in March and 41% in September.
Those who see the scenario getting worse are tied with those who project that the economy will stay as it is. There were 28% in each group in the hundred days of government. In September, it was practically tied again, with, respectively, 28% and 29% in each group.
The proportion of people who project an improvement in their personal economy is also falling. After the peak in October, in which 70% expected an improvement in their economy, the share fell to 59% in December, 56% in March, remaining practically stable at 55% in September.
The number of people who believe they will enter a phase of financial stability has grown. This portion represented 28% in December and March, and rose to 31% in September.
The research identified that, just as occurs in politics, polarization persists in the economy, placing Lula and Bolsonaro voters on opposite camps in economic forecasts.
Among those who declare themselves voters of Jair Bolsonaro, the Datafolha survey records a continuous increase in pessimism.
In December, 43% of Bolsonaro supporters predicted a worsening of the economic scenario. In March, the share rose to 50%, in September, it rose to 52%. This is an increase of 9 percentage points in the period.
The portion that believed in economic improvement went in the opposite direction. It fell from 19% in December to 18% in the survey carried out in March. Now, they amount to 16%.
Aside from the political component of the expectation, which brings antagonism in the projections, the scenarios also fluctuate among economists, and worsened again when looking at 2024. At the end of last year, the expectation was that the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of 2024 would increase by 1 .7%. Now, the projection has dropped to 1.3%.
Among experts, however, projections for the economy have been revised very frequently, up and down.
On a daily basis, the population is subjected to two economic forces that go in opposite directions and make predictions difficult.
The first is the effect of monetary policy. As inflation began to subside, the Central Bank, in August, began to reduce the Selic, the basic rate, but the practical effects will take time to be felt in families’ lives. The long period of three years of rising interest rates (it went from 2% in August 2020 to 13.75% in August 2022, when it stabilized before the fall) still has a contractionary effect on the economy.
In the opposite direction, the Lula government adopted expansionist measures, which help to sustain family consumption. It gave a real increase to the minimum wage, to R$1,320. Increased Bolsa Família from R$40 billion to R$168 billion. Negotiated readjustments for servers.
The post Total number of Lula voters optimistic about the future of the economy falls from 79% to 66% in the year, says Datafolha appeared first in Jornal de Brasília.
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