ALEXA SALOMON
BRASILIA, DF (FOLHAPRESS)
The share of Brazilians who report feeling an improvement in the country’s economy had been falling since the beginning of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), but it reversed, rose and reached the highest level recorded in Datafolha’s historical series.
The data that shows the change comes from a survey carried out with 2,016 people in 139 cities, on the 12th and 13th of this month.
In October 2022, 34% declared that they felt an improvement in the Brazilian economy. Then came the instability and polarization of the dispute for the presidency of the Republic, and a new retraction. In December, 26% reported improvement, in March, 23%. However, in the September survey, the percentage rose to 35%.
In the macroeconomic aspect, the first semester was full of good surprises.
In December 2022, the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin, which brings together economists’ projections, estimated that GDP would expand by 0.8% this year. Now, the expectation is that the year will end with an increase of 2.8%. Some institutions project an increase above 3%.
The revisions consider GDP performance in the first half of the year to be above expectations. From January to March this year, there was an increase of 1.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. The result was driven by agriculture, which increased 21.6%. It was the biggest increase in the segment since the fourth quarter of 1996.
In the second quarter, GDP increased another 0.9% compared to the previous three months.
In retrospect, however, this most recent recovery – as well as its perception by the population – was slow and unstable.
The number of people reporting an improvement in the country’s economy plummeted during the Covid-19 pandemic. On the eve of the global outbreak, in December 2019, 28% declared that they saw progress in Brazil’s economy. In the next survey, in September 2021, with the country feeling the impact of social isolation to contain contagion and deaths, the share had dropped to 11%.
It was the second worst level in the historical series. It only lost to the percentage of 6% recorded in June 2018 – on the other hand, 72% stated that the economy had worsened. The deterioration in the sense of economic well-being reflected the effects of the truckers’ strike, which brought the country to a standstill in May of that year and worsened the perception regarding the administration of President Michel Temer (MDB), already shaken by the increase in unemployment and prices. in general.
Datafolha also recorded a reversal and significant increase in the percentage of people reporting an improvement in their economic life in recent months.
This portion had also been losing ground since October last year, when it registered a peak of 34% feeling that their personal conditions had improved. The percentage then fell to 31% in December, 23% in March, rising again in September to 30%.
Economists have a list of items that have improved and can be felt directly by people, causing this effect.
Government measures were important, such as the expansion of income distribution programs, with emphasis on Bolsa Família, and the improvement in credit conditions, with support from projects such as Desenrola Brasil. In the first five days, the program cleared the names of more than 2 million consumers.
Lower inflation also contributed to easing people’s pockets. Food prices at home, for example, accumulated a drop (deflation) of 0.62% in the 12 months up to August.
It was the first time that this subgroup of the IPCA fell in this period since May 2018.
The resilience of the job market is another factor. In the moving quarter ending in July, the unemployment rate was 7.9%, the lowest for the period since 2014. In the previous quarter, it had been 8%.
Paradoxically, the Datafolha survey identifies stability in expectations regarding these indicators, and less optimistic projections for the coming months.
The scenario for inflation monitored by Datafolha has stagnated. The share of people expecting an increase in the cost of living was 54% in March and also in September.
The percentage of people who believe that inflation will stay the same has also not changed. It was 24% in both surveys. The portion that projects a fall is also practically the same – 20% in March and 19% in the most recent survey.
The purchasing power scenario, in turn, divides opinions in these six months. In March, 32% say it will increase, 33% say it will fall, and another 33% say it will stay as is. The percentages are practically the same as those identified in the September survey, respectively 33%, 31% and 34%.
Most still fear the rise in unemployment.
The percentage was 44% in March and rose to 46%, a variation within the margin of error. There was a slight decrease in the share of those who project a drop in unemployment. It was 29% in March and fell to 26%. The percentage that sees no change also remained practically stable, going from 26% to 27%.
The post Portion of Brazilians who feel an improvement in the economy reaches a peak in Datafolha appeared first in Jornal de Brasília.
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