President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will make his return to the UN General Assembly this Tuesday, the 19th, after 14 years. As tradition dictates, the Brazilian will be the first to speak in New York, but this time, he will speak to a plenary empty of leaders, in an institution under pressure from the tension between powers and the divergences between the rich and the emerging. The president’s speech will be followed closely after a series of statements aligned with Russia and China regarding the war in Ukraine and questions about the hegemony of the dollar in the international market.
With the leaders of China, Russia and India absent, the PT member must resume an agenda similar to that of his previous interventions in the UN pulpit, such as the reform of the Security Council and a development agenda for the countries of the so-called Global South, in addition to calls for rich countries to finance the fight against climate change.
For FAAP international relations professor Lucas Leite, this emptying demonstrates that broader multilateral mechanisms such as the UN are no longer able to serve as a general forum for the main existing discussions. In his assessment, groups such as the G-7, G-20 and Brics, today, are considered more plural than the UN itself, whose decision-making body has China, the USA, France, the United Kingdom and Russia as permanent members and veto power. In parallel, Lula will have the challenge of avoiding new statements about the war in Ukraine that are perceived as sympathetic to Russia.
“Lula has the advantage of being compared to former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was proud to be an international pariah, so this comparison is favorable, but it cannot be taken to the extreme. It is not a license to talk nonsense”, says Carlos Gustavo Poggio, professor in the political science department at Berea College (USA).
Absent
Just like the presidents of China, Xi Jinping, and Russia, Vladimir Putin, who were no longer expected at the meeting, the president of France, Emmanuel Macron, and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, will not attend the Assembly -General. With this, American Joe Biden will be the only one present among the leaders of the UN Security Council. India’s Narendra Modi – who commands one of the largest economies in the world and has just hosted the G-20 summit in New Delhi – will also be absent.
For experts, Brazil’s current position in foreign policy requires a much more complex balance compared to Lula’s first years in government. “The big difference today has to do with the configuration of the global order: with China and Russia emerging as rivals of the USA and Europe, especially around a rivalry between democracies and authoritarianisms, it becomes more difficult for countries like the Brazil maintains equidistance from antagonistic interests”, says Guilherme Casarões, political scientist and professor at FGV.
This is reflected in the Brazilian demand for a reform of the Security Council, a topic that the president is expected to address today For Casarãos, no reform should move forward now “given the increasingly tense geopolitical circumstances involving China and, to a lesser extent, Russia” .
Lula will also address in his speech issues such as combating climate change, a frequent topic within Brazilian foreign policy, according to analysts interviewed by the Estadão. Leite hopes that the PT member, once again, will make tough demands for financing actions against the climate crisis and greater commitment from developed nations.
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