IDIANA TOMAZELLI
BRASILIA, DF (FOLHAPRESS)
The good performance of the economy in the second quarter of this year and the record agricultural harvest led the Ministry of Finance to increase its growth projection for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2023, from 2.5% to 3.2%.
The inflation estimate, in turn, remained unchanged at 4.85% – above the upper range of the target, which admits an IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) of 3.25%, with a tolerance margin of 1 .5 percentage points more or less.
The government’s new projections were announced by the SPE (Secretariat for Economic Policy) this Monday (18).
According to the agency, the so-called “statistical loading” for GDP was already at 3.1% in the first two quarters of this year. This means that, if in the second half of 2023 the country does not see any increase in income generated, an expansion of 3.1% would already be guaranteed.
In inflation, the increase in fuel prices, which drives inflation, has been offset by less pressure on food and service prices.
For 2024, the government maintained its GDP growth projection at 2.3%, but adjusted its IPCA forecast from 3.3% to 3.4% (within the target range of 3% with 1.5 points of tolerance for more or less), due to changes in the exchange rate scenario and commodity prices.
The new numbers show some proximity to market projections. The Focus Bulletin, released this Monday by the Central Bank, indicates that agents’ expectations are for a 2.86% increase in GDP and a 4.95% increase in inflation this year.
The post Government raises GDP growth projection in 2023 to 3.2% appeared first in Jornal de Brasília.
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