In the wake of positive surprises with economic activity, the Focus Bulletin released this Monday, 18th, pointed to a new improvement in the projection for this year’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The median for the increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 jumped from 2.64% to 2.89%, against 2.29% a month ago Considering only the 86 responses in the last five working days, the estimate for GDP at the end of 2023 it went from 2.96% to 2.90%.
For 2024, the Focus Report also showed a more favorable estimate for GDP growth, from 1.47% to 1.50%, compared to 1.33% a month ago. Considering only the 82 responses in the last five working days, the estimate for GDP in 2024 fell from 1.60% to 1.46%.
In relation to 2025, the median dropped from 2.00% to 1.95%, compared to 1.90% four weeks earlier. The Bulletin also brought the growth estimate for 2026, which remained at 2.00%, the same level as a month ago.
After the GDP of the second quarter (0.9%), the Secretary of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance, Guilherme Mello, told theBroadcastthat the official forecast for 2023 should be between 3.0% and 3.5%. At the Central Bank, the current estimate is 2.0%, according to the June Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI).
Debt/GDP ratio
The Focus Bulletin showed a scenario of changes in projections for public accounts this year in the edition published this Monday, 18th. The estimate for the indicator that measures the relationship between the public sector’s net debt and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 it rose from 60.40% to 60.50%, compared to 60.40% a month ago.
For the primary deficit in relation to GDP this year, the median remained at 1.00%, the same percentage expected a month ago. The Ministry of Finance maintains that it must deliver a deficit result of 1.0% of GDP in 2023, or lower. The estimate for the nominal deficit this year remained at 7.40% of GDP, repeating the projection from four weeks earlier.
The primary result reflects the balance between government revenues and expenses, before paying interest on public debt. The nominal result reflects the balance after interest expenses
2024
For next year, the estimate for net debt varied from 63.90% to 63.80%. Four weeks ago, the expectation was 63.90% of GDP. The primary deficit expected for 2024 increased slightly from 0.71% to 0.73% of GDP. The nominal deficit projected in Focus went from 6.80% to 6.57% of GDP. A month ago, the percentages were 0.75% and 6.75%, in that order.
At the end of August, the government presented the 2024 budget bill to Congress. The piece predicts a surplus of R$2.8 billion in 2024 (0% of GDP), but depends on the collection of R$168 billion in extra measures, delivered to Parliament together with the Budget. Due to the high need for additional revenue, there is some skepticism in the market about whether the outcome proposed by the government is feasible.
Current account deficit
Financial market economists increased the balance of payments current account deficit estimate for 2023 in this week’s Focus Bulletin.
The deficit projection varied from US$42.80 billion to US$43.40 billion, compared to US$43.00 billion a month ago. For next year, the deficit estimate remained at US$50.00 billion, the same value expected four weeks ago.
Regarding the trade balance surplus in 2023, the projection increased from US$70.10 billion to US$70.40 billion, against US$71.70 billion a month ago. For 2024, the median surplus remained at US$60.00 billion for the ninth week in a row.
Analysts consulted weekly by the BC estimate that the inflow of Direct Investment in the Country (IDP) will be more than enough to cover the shortfall in current transactions this year and next.
The median forecast for the IDP in 2023 remained at US$80 billion, repeating the median from a month ago. For 2024, the estimate was maintained at US$80.00 billion for the 33rd time.
Estadão Content
The post Boletim Focus projection of GDP growth in 2023 jumps from 2.64% to 2.89% appeared first in Jornal de Brasília.
Source link
THE NAIS IS OFFICIAL EDITOR ON NAIS NEWS