Consumer confidence rose 0.2 points in September compared to August, in the seasonally adjusted series, reported this Monday, 25th, Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). The Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) reached 97.0 points, the same level as in February 2014. In quarterly moving averages, the index grew 1.6 points, the sixth consecutive increase.
“Consumer confidence continued to improve in September, despite the slower pace compared to previous strong increases. As a result, the indicator remains at a level similar to that recorded at the beginning of 2014, before the start of the economic recession that year, and was influenced by the calibration of expectations for the coming months, while the perception of the current situation continued to evolve positively. This situation is heterogeneous across income ranges, with an improvement in indicators in both time horizons in the lower income ranges and worsening expectations futures of families with higher income. In the month, the movement is a reflection of the continuity of positive factors in the economy, concomitant with a challenging scenario for the consumer with high interest rates, debt levels and defaults. For the coming months, consumer confidence may return to neutrality of 100 points, if the current trend continues”, said Anna Carolina Gouveia, economist at FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre/FGV), in an official note.
In September, the Current Situation Index (ISA) increased 1.8 points, to 83.2 points, the highest level since December 2014. The Expectations Index (IE) decreased 0.9 points, to 106.7 points.
The component that measures satisfaction with the current local economic situation grew 1.3 points, to 92.2 points, the eighth consecutive increase, reaching the highest level since July 2014. The item that measures evaluations of family finances rose 2.3 points, to 74.6 points.
As for expectations, the momentum for purchases of durable goods increased 0.9 points, to 99.5 points, accumulating an increase of almost 20 points since June. The item that measures expectations about the local economic situation rose 1.5 points, to 117.2 points. Only the outlook for family finances declined during the month, falling 5.2 points, to 102.4 points, returning part of the increase accumulated over the last two months.
Opening the survey by income range showed an improvement in confidence in the lowest income groups. Among families with income up to R$2,100, there was an increase of 2.7 points, while families with income between R$2,100.01 and R$4,800 had an increase of 4.1 points in confidence. The indicator dropped 3.0 points for families with income between R$4,800.001 and R$9,600, and decreased 0.8 point in the group with income above R$9,600.01.
The Consumer Survey collected interviews between the 1st and 20th of September.
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