The Fight Between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Explained

Azerbaijan said on Wednesday that it would halt its military operation against an Armenian enclave inside its territory, an assault that may already have reshaped the contours of a conflict that has resulted in two wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

It was not immediately clear whether the cease-fire was being enacted. But statements from both sides indicated that the Armenian separatist authorities were surrendering to Azerbaijan’s demands in a deal mediated by Moscow, which deployed peacekeepers to the region after brokering an end to a 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020.

Decades of violence and geopolitical rivalry underpin the dispute between the two former Soviet republics over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders and is home to tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians.

Tensions had increased over recent months as Azerbaijan has tightened its grip on the Lachin Corridor, the mountain road linking Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Russian peacekeepers seemed unable to stabilize the situation, with Moscow distracted and its regional authority weakened by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But the scale of the action on Tuesday was larger than any it has taken since Azerbaijan was last at war with Armenia, according to Alexander Iskandaryan, a political scientist in the Armenian capital, Yerevan. The ethnic Armenian authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh said at least 27 people had died.

Here’s a guide to the long-running conflict.

What’s behind the dispute?

As the Soviet Union was collapsing, Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence with the intention of reunifying with Armenia. The declaration was one cause of a war that followed; tens of thousands of people were killed and hundreds of thousands were displaced. A cease-fire in 1994 left Armenia in control of the territory and seven surrounding districts.

A second war erupted in 2020 during which thousands were killed and tens of thousands displaced. This time, Azerbaijan, using Turkish and Israeli attack drones, recaptured much of the territory and its surroundings.

Moscow, a longtime protector of Armenia, brokered a cease-fire and deployed about 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.

The government in Azerbaijan, whose economy has been strengthened by exports of oil and natural gas, has been seeking to cement its military gains from 2020, both through talks on a more permanent peace deal and by increasingly blocking overland traffic between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The war was devastating for Armenia,” Olesya Vartanyan, who analyses the South Caucasus region for the International Crisis Group think tank, said earlier this year. “Azerbaijan has already got most of what it wants. They need it formalized.”

How big was Azerbaijan’s latest military operation?

Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry described its forces’ actions on Tuesday as “local anti-terrorist” operations, saying they were using precision weapons to target what it said were Armenian firing points and other military facilities in the area.

A statement from the enclave’s unrecognized pro-Armenian government said that its capital and other cities and villages were “under intensive bombardment,” in a “large-scale military offensive.” And the Armenians denied they had any army formations, service members or weapons in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Farhad Mammedov, the head of the Center of South Caucasus think tank in Baku, Azerbaijan, said on Tuesday that given its military might, Azerbaijan was free to do whatever it wanted.

“This territory is completely surrounded by the Azerbaijani armed forces,” Mr. Mammedov said in a phone interview of the remaining enclave. “Any attempt to resist would be futile.”

Mr. Iskandaryan, the political scientist in Yerevan, said: “The question is whether Azerbaijan wants to capture the entire Karabakh and squeeze the Armenians out of there.”

What were Azerbaijan’s demands?

Ever since the 2020 cease-fire, Azerbaijan has insisted that it was due full control of all of Nagorno-Karabakh under the eventual peace deal. It has demanded that the ethnic Armenians there either submit to Azerbaijani governance or depart. Armenia has condemned Azerbaijan’s demands as a form of ethnic cleansing, while Russia has appeared powerless to de-escalate tensions.

On Tuesday, as Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry announced its military operation, the country’s Foreign Ministry issued what appeared to be an ultimatum, declaring that only the “dissolution” of the pro-Armenian government in the area would “achieve peace and stability.”

On Wednesday, in a statement carried by the Azerbaijani state news agency Azertac, the country’s Defense Ministry said that it had agreed to halt its “antiterror measures” in the enclave, Nagorno-Karabakh, after the separatist government there agreed that its forces would lay down their arms and withdraw from their battle positions.

Around the same time, the Armenian separatist government issued its own statement declaring that it had accepted a Russia-brokered cease-fire after Azerbaijani forces managed to break through Armenian positions and “take control of a number of heights and strategic road junctions.”

As for Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Tuesday: “Armenia does not participate in military operations, and I want to note once again that the Republic of Armenia does not have an army in Nagorno-Karabakh,” according to the Russian news agency Tass.

“At present, we will not take any rash actions,” he added.

What happened to the peace talks?

High-level talks toward signing a peace agreement have continued between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 2020 cease-fire. Even a day before Azerbaijan launched its attack, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it saw “gradual improvement of the humanitarian situation” in the region and voiced optimism that Armenia and Azerbaijan were interested in a “normalization” of relations.

The talks remained stalled, however, around what Ms. Vartanyan characterized earlier this year as three main issues:

Nagorno-Karabakh: The governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan made repeated statements over recent months saying that they recognize each other’s territorial integrity, including with respect to Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent districts, which are part of Azerbaijan under international law.

At the same time, Armenia has sought detailed guarantees to protect the rights of the ethnic Armenians, and called the wording that Azerbaijan proposed during talks on the issue unacceptable.

The frontier: The border between the two countries, which runs for at least 600 miles, is not demarcated, and at points, troops are stationed within easy striking distance of one another. Azerbaijan wants the demarcation on its terms. The government of Armenia sought security assurances that could pave the way for Azerbaijan to withdraw troops it has stationed inside Armenia and to reduce border incidents.

Transport routes: Azerbaijan and Turkey have closed their borders with Armenia for three decades because of the conflict, but since the 2020 cease-fire there have been talks over how to restart transport connections. Azerbaijan seeks the construction of a road and rail corridor that would connect it with Nakhichevan, an Azerbaijani exclave on Armenia’s southwestern border, and from there to Turkey. Russia is also interested in the corridor as an additional way to circumvent sanctions and other trade limitations with the West.

What is the regional backdrop?

Moscow has long played a central role in the dispute. However, the war in Ukraine has hampered its ability to project regional military power, allowing Azerbaijan to test whether Russia can still impose its will on smaller neighbors.

Turkey, which has been pursuing an increasingly assertive foreign policy, also has a stake in the regional conflict, and it sides with Azerbaijan. It is a member of NATO but has made security overtures to Moscow and has purchased a Russian missile system over Washington’s objections.

For its part, Washington has long sought influence in the South Caucasus and other states in the former Soviet bloc. The European Union, while pushing for talks, has turned to Azerbaijan in its search for energy partners, to make up for the loss of Russian imports since the start of the war. And it has sent observers to monitor Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan.

Anton Troianovski contributed reporting.