After the surprise with the IPCA – official inflation index – in August (0.23%), inflationary expectations resumed their downward trajectory in the Focus Bulletin released this Monday, 18th, – used as a basis in the Committee’s inflation models of Monetary Policy (Copom). The board meets tomorrow and Wednesday.
The projection for official inflation in 2023 fell from 4.93% to 4.86%. A month earlier, the median was 4.90%. For 2024, the focus of monetary policy, the projection was reduced from 3.89% to 3.86%, the same median as a month ago.
Considering only the 129 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median for 2023 varied from 4.93% to 4.84% For 2024, in turn, the projected increase went from 3.82% to 3.83%, also considering 129 updates in the period.
For 2025, which has a minority weight in Copom decisions, the projection remained at 3.50%, repeating the median from four weeks earlier. In the longer horizon, 2026, the estimate was also maintained at 3.50%, as was the case a month ago.
The Focus Bulletin estimates continue to be above target. For 2023, despite today’s low, the median exceeds the target ceiling (4.75%) and indicates the achievement of the objective to be pursued by the BC for the third consecutive year, after 2021 and 2022. In other years, expectations are within the range, but exceed the central target of 3.0%.
At the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in August, the BC released a projection of 3.4% for the 2024 IPCA, the same as the previous meeting. For 2025, it was 3.0% in the model, which considered a first cut of 0.25pp, from 3.1% in June. For 2023, the projection is 4.9%.
Estadão Content
The post In Copom week, IPCA projection in Focus resumes relief in 2023 and 2024 appeared first in Jornal de Brasília.
Source link
THE NAIS IS OFFICIAL EDITOR ON NAIS NEWS